Presidential Election Results in Ukraine Signal the Possible End of the Orange Revolution

By Indra Baatarkhuu

Counting of more than 97% of votes of the presidential run-off elections in Ukraine revealed the lead of the pro-Russian candidate Mr. Viktor Yanukovych over his bitter opponent Mrs. Yuliya Tymoshenko by almost 3% of votes.

Mr. Yanukovych describes the results as a “turning point in the country’s history.” The apparent ensuing victory of the 59-year-old former Prime Minister has the potential to restore the dominance of Russian influence in Ukraine and break the ties with the Europe and NATO which Mrs.Tymoshenko has been diligently building after accusing the president elect Mr. Yanukovych of the electoral fraud, suing the case to the Supreme Court and leading the Orange revolution of 2004.

The west seems to be much concerned about the results of elections. Council of Europe Parliamentary Assembly Rapporters for Ukraine, Ms. Hanne Severinsen, described Mr. Yanukovych’s victory as a “tragedy.”

However, unlike the past one, 2010 presidential elections in Ukraine has been evaluated by the international observers as an "impressive display of democratic elections".

“The voting was fair, clear and transparent”, said the observers of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe.

Mr. Yanukovych is confident in his victory too. "I think Yulia Tymoshenko should prepare to resign. She understands that well," he addressed Ukrainian people on Sunday night. The deputy head of Yakunovych’s party emphasizes the fact that the election reflects the choice of people: “The first rule for a true democrat is to accept defeat when that is the will of the people."

In contrast to this confidence of Yanukovych, his female rival well-known for her hair braids does not seem to concede defeat so easily. "It is too soon to draw any conclusions," she said.

Tymoshenko's campaign chief Alexander Turchinov insisted Sunday there was evidence of fraud. Her election observers claim to have been barred from 1,000 polling stations in the eastern Donetsk region and accused Yanukovych of "open banditry and terrorism."

Mrs.Tymoshenko has not appealed to the court yet and remains silent.

Mr. Yanukovych has made his appeal during the elections promising to unite the country and change policies that favored only some regions of the country. He said he will do this by removing restrictions on the use of the Russian language in schools and media and balancing ties between Ukraine's diverse neighbors. This move certainly was at heart of the Russian-speaking east who did not feel they were treated equally with their western compatriots under the previous government.

Many others made their decision in favor of Mr. Yanukovych in hope of political stability and economic recovery.

"I want stability and order," Tatyana Volodaschuk, 60-year-old voter weary of political turmoil said. "Yanukovych offers us the guarantee of a normal life."

Either presidential candidates’ victories will have symbolic meaning in their political careers and personal lives. The victory of Tymoshenko would mean the further development of Europe-Ukraine relations and possible future entry of Ukraine into the European Union and NATO.

Despite opposition in their political views and policies, ironic parallel exists between the rivals – both will have their anniversaries in 2010. So the answer to the question who gets the present of Ukraine for his/her anniversary : Mrs. Timoshenko for her 50^th anniversary or Mr. Yakunovich for his 60^th anniversary will soon be known, deciding which way the country will move.

"The World Capital of Killing"

By Amanda Vance

In a continent known for AIDS, poverty, and political upheaval, the Democratic Republic of the Congo stands out: it is currently the site of the first conflict to claim more than 6 million lives since the Holocaust. Yet the Congo, home to the largest peacekeeping force in the world, hardly ever makes headlines, and vast stretches of its land remain void of humanitarian aid, so that medicine, electricity, food and water remain in constant short supply. Meanwhile, attempts to negotiate a peace settlement have repeatedly failed to stop the fighting, leaving more than 45,000 civilians dead each month.
It is hard to trace the roots of this deadly war, since the Congo – a mineral-rich land in the heart of Africa – has been the victim of looting and repressive rule since Belgium colonized its territory in the late 19th Century. Since gaining independence in 1960, the Congo has suffered everything from the assassination of its first leader, Prince Lumumba, to 30 years of dictatorship under Mobutu Sese Seko, whose corrupt rule ended only with a civil war in 1997. The fighting, a consequence of attempts by Hutu militias to destabilize neighboring Rwanda, resulted in the short-lived presidency of Laurent D. Kabila, who was similarly expelled from the country in 1998, when a second civil war broke out. In the five years that followed, countries from Rwanda to Uganda joined in the bloodshed.
Now, even after a UN-brokered peace in 2003 and the country’s first democratic elections in 2006, the Congo remains in tatters. Rape and torture run rampant, villages are destroyed by rebel offensives, and millions of refugees are left to fend for themselves, since neither the international community nor the Congolese government have the authority or the resources to help them.
None of this is news after twelve years of conflict, which is why the Congo fails to command the media’s attention. Nevertheless, there are those who report regularly on the atrocities, including a columnist for the New York Times, Nicholas Kristof, who has been added to the speakers’ list for BGIA’s spring semester.
In his most recent column, "The World Capital of Killing," Mr. Kristof makes an interesting point: it is not humanitarian aid which is most sorely needed in the Congo, but a more vigorous international effort to end the war itself. Humanitarian aid is simply the pressure that slows the bleeding of certain wounds; in order to heal the Congo completely, real surgery is needed. It is time for the international community to engage in this issue: to put pressure on Rwanda to stop sponsoring rebels, and on President Joseph Kabila to arrest generals wanted for war crimes. Furthermore, the United States should lead an effort to monitor the minerals coming from Congo to stop warlords from profiting from this devastating war. Only then can the international community be said to have satisfied its promise after the Rwandan genocide: never again.

Boiling Tensions in Sino-US Relations, New Categories for Disputes

By Eleanor Albert

Anyone paying slight attention to the media coverage of Sino-US relations in the past month or two can recognize the increasing tensions between the two superpowers. In the midst of new US arms sale to Taiwan, Google threatening to pull out of China, the state-stabilized Chinese currency, the international community is the audience as US-China debates take the stage. John Lee wrote this week at Foreign Policy of the growing tensions and developed three classifications for the nature of the disagreements between the United States and China: Fundamental Disagreements, Serious Disagreements, and Manageable Disagreements.

I fully agree with Lee’s manageable disagreements: military competition and economic disputes. It is true that both countries now rely on interdependence economically in a world that is increasingly changed by globalization. Simultaneously, the United States and China find themselves to also be competitors in the international community: the US as the world’s largest super power and China as the prominent rising force that could potentially challenge the US. Economic disputes and military competition will surely be the source of tension between the two countries as the US tries to hold on to its place as a supreme power and as China breaks into the new position that it seeks as a key player in the international community.

As for Lee’s serious disagreements, he names Taiwan and rogue states. China, with the ambition to hold a stronger role in the world order, will have to modify or be more cautious in its interaction with rogue states if China hopes to prove its credibility to the rest of the world. Concerning Taiwan: Both the US and China accept the status quo with their respective policies towards Taiwan. Taiwan’s economy grows progressively dependent on the Mainland. Although the US maintains its arms sale with Taiwan and the US government is still bound by law to intervene in the event of a military attack on Taiwan, the US under the Obama administration has discussed at length the crucial importance of the positive and cooperative relationship between the US and China (or at least this held true before his sale of $6.4 billion dollars in arms sale to Taiwan at the end of January).

He refers to ‘climate change’ and ‘Tibet and Xinjiang’ the two primary fundamental disagreements between the US and China. While Tibet and Xinjiang are topics of irreconcilable differences – in regard to the management of domestic issues versus international human rights, I strongly disagree with Lee’s argument on climate change. After spending a summer in Beijing in 2008 and a semester in Shanghai in the fall of 2009, there is a strong movement toward the “green” movement. The Chinese do not ignore the damage of their rapid development and industrialization and they have begun to emphasize the importance of the environment and its protection. The Chinese government’s skepticism is a product of the US trying to impose carbon emissions restrictions, however the US already had its industrial age. Perhaps to make a difference, the US should impose certain restrictions on consumption domestically and be a model for the international community…

News Diplomacy Turkey not turning back on West, says NATO’s Rasmussen

There has been criticism from some that Turkey is moving away from the West, given its recent foreign policy moves, but NATO Secretary-General Anders F. Rasmussen does not share that concern.

Rasmussen, who shared his opinions on various issues in an interview with Today's Zaman, said he was not concerned about Turkish foreign policy changing direction, adding that he believed Turkey can and should play an important role as a bridge between Central Asia and the Middle East and Europe and North America. “I think Turkey for geographical and political reasons can and will play an instrumental role; having said that, I also hope to see progress in the Turkish relationship with the EU. I would urge EU member states to make progress in the Turkish relationship with the European Common Security and Defense Policy and in particular concerning the European Defence Agency. It is a strong wish from the Turkish side,” Rasmussen said, expressing his opinion that Turkey is a valuable contributor to a number of operations and missions.

Rasmussen also expressed the view that he thinks Turkey can play an instrumental role and contribute to a peace process in Afghanistan, owing to its good relationship with neighboring Pakistan. “Having said that I also think it is essential that the reconciliation and reintegration process should be led by the Afghan government. It has to be an Afghan-led process. We can, of course, assist that but the Afghan government must be in the driver’s seat. Those individuals and groups involved in the reconciliation and reintegration process should respect the Afghan Constitution, Afghan democracy, the rule of law and human rights.”
He also commented on his dialogue with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who canceled a joint press conference with Rasmussen -- then prime minister of Denmark -- in 2005 because Danish authorities insisted that a journalist from a television station linked with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) be allowed to attend the conference. “I have the very best impression. We are always very frank and very open with each other during our conversations ... So I can tell you that our relationship is the very best,” Rasmussen said.

He also briefly commented on the ongoing investigation into alleged coup d’état plots by some army generals in Turkey. “Obviously, it is a matter of great interest. But I am not going to interfere in internal and domestic Turkish discussions and politics. I think the relationship between the military and the political system in Turkey has developed and improved during recent years. We have seen positive developments recently. Within the context of NATO we have the very best relations with Turkey at the political and military level,” he said.

Rasmussen also responded to Today’s Zaman’s questions on the cartoon crisis in Denmark five years ago. In response to a question on whether he would have changed any of his actions if the clock could be turned back, he said the cartoon crisis was a matter of the past and noted that he greatly valued relationships with Muslim countries and was working to develop these. “I give a high priority to the further development of NATO’s partnerships with a number of Muslim countries. We have two partnerships, one with the Gulf states and the Mediterranean Dialogue, which also includes Israel. I made it clear that I would give priority to developing these partnerships further and right after my press conference, I invited ambassadors from all countries in these partnerships to discuss with them how we could possibly take further steps bilaterally. I have met all the ambassadors; I had the opportunity to meet with some of the political leaders. So these partnerships are developing and will further develop in the coming years. I will meet with the secretary-general of the OIC [Organization of the Islamic Conference] in İstanbul. I have taken a number of steps myself, and this outreach has been received positively,” Rasmussen said.

In response to a question on whether he still believes depicting the Prophet Muhammad as a terrorist falls within the principle of freedom of expression, the Danish politician replied: “I have made my position on that issue quite clear. There are two core principles that are of utmost importance. The first is freedom of expression. I think it is essential in every democracy. Without freedom of expression, you do not have democracy. Another core principle is freedom of religion, freedom to exercise your religion, and in that context, I would also say and stress I have the deepest respect for people’s personal religious feelings and their belief.”



05 February 2010, Friday


SELÇUK GÜLTAŞLI BRUSSELS

By Elias Isquith

As this BBC article makes clear, the road to building a viable state in Haiti is going to be a long one.

Before the earthquake, I didn't really know much about Haiti (I had read a bit about its war for independence for a class I took on the French Revolution, but that's about it), so I can't really offer anything worth more than 2 cents about Haiti's past, present, or future.

That said, a person at the organization I'm currently interning at (forgive me for the vagaries but I haven't asked this person's permission to retell her/his information, so...safety first) returned from Haiti on Monday, and on Tuesday s/he gave an informal speech to the staff about what s/he saw and the path ahead as s/he sees it. I considered her/his recollections and insights fascinating and elucidating - and they in essence echo what that BBC article says - so I thought I might share them here.

Perhaps it's best to start with the bad news: this source (who has been to Haiti, by her/his estimate at least twenty times) said that, worryingly, from what s/he had been told, the U.S. Government at this time has set aside around four-million dollars for aid and reconstruction efforts in Haiti. To help us understand just how inadequate that sum will be, s/he told us that, to this date, the government's expenditure towards rebuilding New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina has been one-hundred million dollars. So, as of now, the United States of America has set aside roughly three to four percent of what it's spent already on the truly unfinished work in Louisiana, to rebuild a nation of roughly three million people. Clearly, this is not enough.

Further, we were told that although the world's donations have been - by any measure other than what will be necessary - enormous (around six-hundred million dollars), NGOs and the like are reporting that the money has stopped coming in at nearly the rate of, say, a week ago, despite the fact that so much more is desperately needed. This isn't a moral failure on the world's part - people gave and most of us can only give so much - but rather just a statement of how truly monumental the task before us is.

Now, there's more bad news but I figured I shouldn't go on forever and you're probably clamoring for something good. The good news is born from a certain irony - things were already so bad in Haiti, that the Haitians are responding to this catastrophe with a truly inspiring mix of faith and perseverance; as my source said, These are tough, tough people. And I don't know what the news channels like CNN, FOX, and MSNBC are reporting (don't have a T.V.), but if you're worried that Haiti has become or is about to become a lawless land riven by the many evils we imagine when we think of a post-apocalyptic scenario - don't. My source reports that the people of Haiti are looking out for one another; communities are attempting to establish kinds of make-shift town councils (for lack of a better term) to do what's possible and necessary in these circumstances, like setting up road-blocks (most people are living/sleeping in the streets) or organizing for religious services.

And that brings me to the part of my source's story that I found the most remarkable - s/he told me that, at night, the people of Port au Prince are congregating for boisterous hymns and dances and exaltations of a higher being, one that they believe has brought the earthquake upon them not as punishment (sorry, Pat Robertson) but rather to give them - and the world - an opportunity to build a new, better Haiti. There I was, at first listening to her/him describe all of this anguish and wondering how I was ever going to go about finishing my work for the day. But when I heard that the people actually living it - the people who actually saw their homes collapse before them, so often with loved ones inside - have not given up hope or the will to continue living rather than merely surviving, I knew that it wasn't my job (and it's not our job) to sit and sulk about how cruel life can be.

Instead, it's our job to keep reminding people that there's work to do - and lots of it.

Call for Submissions - BardPolitik Spring 2010 Issue

BardPolitik: Call for Submissions

BardPolitik wants you! We are calling for one-paragraph pitches on potential essay topics for our Spring 2010 issue. We are particularly interested in the theme of “The World in 2030,” and welcome essay topics envisioning the future of political and economic landscapes in 20 years. Other potential essay topics will also be reviewed, but they should be relevant to global issues as well—anything from emerging international trends to analysis of a country-specific policy. Essays are limited to a minimum of 1,500 words and a maximum of 4,000 words. These essays will have to be complete by April 19th, 2010, so send us your ideas as soon as possible!

One-paragraph pitches are due by February 22, 2010 to bardpolitik2010@gmail.com.

China’s Leaders Meet to Plan Tibet’s Stability

By Eleanor Albert

Last week, China’s leaders met at a conference to develop an economic strategy that will expand Tibet’s economy and as a result establish lasting stability in the region. Such efforts reflect the intentions of Chinese leadership turning to means other than physical intervention and crackdowns to bring stability to the volatile region.

Xinhua news agency, the media voice of the party, reported that the government said “more efforts must be made to greatly improve living standards of the people in Tibet, as well as ethnic unity and stability.”

The protests and violence that plague regionally autonomous Tibet persist (most recently the large uprising in 2008) and accordingly the international eye maintains its criticism of Chinese policy in the area, the United States leading the criticism on China’s approach to human rights.

The Chinese governance system has long relied on and placed tremendous importance on the concept of unity and stability within the nation’s borders. The primary concern in China’s national security interests is first and foremost the survival and stability of nation. Under the rule of Chinese Communist Party, the state, the party, and the regime function as one complete entity and thus, for the government to maintain the country’s core values and national stability, the security of the regime must be ingrained within security interests. One of the most widespread challenges to the China’s security is the fervent presence of separatist forces – particularly from Tibet.

While Tibetan ethnic nationalism is at the heart of the instability, economic opportunity takes precedence as the greatest concern for the Chinese people, Tibetan, Han, Uighurs, or otherwise. China developed at extraordinary rate. In spite of the government’s attempts at distributing the economic growth and technological development, the sheer size of the country, geographic diversity, and varying demographic severely impeded China’s ability to develop in a balanced and even manner.

The intent of further investing in Tibet’s economy has significant potential in easing tensions. By devoting capital and effort to economic development, the government seeks to provide Tibet with access to enhanced economic opportunity in hopes that Tibet will in turn diminish the separatist efforts. This strategy, if correctly implemented, could benefit both Tibet and the People’s Republic of China.

It is a common misinterpretation by the West – with many outspoken organizations and citizens that have liked to the cause of the Tibet – that Tibet seeks independence. The Dalai Lama himself has stated that Tibet does not want freedom from the PRC, but rather full autonomy without added sanctions and restrictions from Beijing.

Chinese military intervention for the suppression of protest and violence on a small level are naturally not the preferred policies in the eyes of the international community. From the Chinese perspective, Tibet and all tension and instability that may arise are strictly domestic issues and China alone determines the course of action in the autonomous region. Nevertheless, China finds itself under the scrutiny of the developed world as China takes a larger role in international community and to project their legitimacy as a major world power, alternative policy to establish stability are much desired. Thus, the pursuit of economic development programs to resolve instability in Tibet is a differing policy approach that has promise in alleviating tension in Tibet and will hopefully be respected and noted by the international community.