Mission: Iraqi Elections

By Michael Burgevin

As Iraqis headed to the polls on Saturday, January 31, journalists and reporters from around the world held their breath, waiting for their next headline full of violence and bloodshed. The real headline, however, was the lack of uproar. There were no missiles deployed, no foreign monitors killed, and only several well-contained outbreaks of violence. The country received international recognition for the relative smoothness of their elections. "I'm very much encouraged by what you have achieved,” said U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon while visiting the country last Friday. The 2009 elections contrast sharply with the last provisional elections in 2005, which were hampered by religious boycotting and insurgent control of several regions.

Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki’s Dawa Party was the overwhelming political winner. Preliminarily tallies show that candidates loyal to Mr. Maliki won many, but not all, of the provincial seats, including Baghdad. However, they do not control enough seats to operate without coalition building. The strong if not overwhelming support of the Shiite Party sends a dual message: many Iraqis desire a strong central government, but they do not want one party to control all political power (nytimes). Mr. Maliki’s party has reflected this message. “We don’t seek to rule alone or marginalize anyone. We are open to the other parties because we don’t believe in the dictatorship of regions” said Hassan Sinead, Member of Parliament and the Dawa Party.

Mr. Maliki’s success surprised those who predicted his downfall given his close ties to onetime president George W. Bush. Many cite his domestic development and national security as reasons for his popularity, suggesting that Mr. Bush’s war was not enough to completely wipe out the hope of future peace in Iraq.

The provincial elections have the potential to reintegrate Sunni Arabs back into the political system. Because Sunnis boycotted the 2005 elections, regions such as the Nineveh Province have been dominated by Kurds, even though Sunnis make up over 70 percent of the population. Initial election reports suggest that the Sunnis have began reclaiming such territories. Sam Parker, an Iraq Program Officer for the United States Institute of Peace, hopes that such victories will lead to Sunni trust in the political process. “The Sunnis are going to feel like that if they play the political game, they will get a fair shake when it comes to representation and distribution of resources,” said Parker in an interview with the Council on Foreign Relations.

This is not to say that the crisis in Iraq has been solved, far from it. The claim of victory oversimplifies the realities of any international issue. With multiple assertions of fraud in the Anbar Provence, the murder of eight candidates, and the shooting of several protesters, no one could claim that Iraq has magically transformed itself into a secure country. Much will be revealed as the country gears up for its national elections at the beginning of 2010. For now, the world must hold judgment as we wait to see, were the elections a positive step towards political representation, or just another Mission Accomplished?