Latin America's Turn

By Michael Burgevin

In anticipation of his meeting with President Barack Obama this weekend, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva urged the United States to reevaluate its relationship with Latin American, stating that “We are a democratic and peaceful continent and the United States should look at production and development (in the region).” Relations between the United States and its southern neighbors were strained during the Bush administration, which distrusted the growing number of leftist governments.

“The creation of leftist regimes has transformed the political landscape in Latin America since the election of Hugo Chávez in 1998,” explained Dr. Robert Kaufman yesterday at a lecture held by the Wagner School at NYU. Political change was a hot button issue during the turn of the century as the region suffered from negative reverberations following the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Leaders such as Hugo Chávez and later Cristina Fernández de Kirchner swept into power on platforms of rewriting the current political structure. In his presidential address to the country in 1999, Chávez announced passionately, “the constitution and with it the ill-fated political system to which it gave birth 40 years ago has to die: it is going to die, sirs, accept it!”

According to Kaufman, the new governments transformed themselves into either radical or social democratic regimes. Within the new radical governments, the presidents have held tight to the reigns of political power, placing emphasis on wealth distribution in programs such as Chávez’s Misiones. In contrast, social democratic regimes tend to shift authority into the technocratic administration, stressing the continuation of market-oriented strategies. “Lula’s willingness to relax his (direct administrative) authority contrasts sharply with Chávez … who now controls the entire government.”

The strength of these new governments was put to the test in the last five months as the economic crisis took hold in Latin America. The region’s onetime confidence that the global financial crisis would not reach its shores seems almost comical as industrial output plummets and unemployment spikes in the region. The question now is which style of governance will survive the growing economic pressure. Kaufman believes that the social democratic regimes are better positioned to pull through the next few years. “The popularity and economic flexibility of governments (such as Brazil) will allow for more political leeway,” he stated, well stressing that regimes in Venezuela and Argentina, which have relied on redistribution and price control, will face a larger challenge.

Ultimately, there may be no immediate change to the system, says Kaufman. However, long term political shifts, such as heightened polarization in radical regimes and strengthening of social democratic governments, could easily be set into motion during the economic crisis. One thing, says Kaufman, is certain: we are witnessing the beginning of a “new era” in Latin America.