Pending (Forever?): What Happens Now

Saya Iwasaki

Tunisia and Egypt successfully overthrew their long-standing autocratic government. While congratulations seem appropriate, “what next?” is an important question to ask; especially with the sudden influx of about 3000 Tunisian immigrants into Sicily. The Revolutions are far from over and until both countries can regain stability, I don't think I can say that they were 100% successful.

Many Tunisians are migrating to Europe in hopes of making the big money, especially since the economy of Tunisia is in a fragile state and not strong enough to support a certain population. The unemployed have gained nothing from the revolution since they continue to remain in the same state. While Italian officials can talk about reducing the number of immigrants, the numbers will not lessen until Tunisia is stable again and able to increase the standard of living for their citizens.

The biggest concern is the post-Revolution state of the nation. The Constitution in Tunisia is being written out right now, but the lack of government leaves an empty position of authority that could be filled by A. a proper government, B. another autocrat or military official or C. by the Islamists returning from exile. In Egypt, people are celebrating and the power was handed over to the military, but will the people’s wish for a democracy be answered?

The problem with revolutions is always after, never during. Once the former power has been removed, the new power is in charge of running the nation. In Myanmar, one of the underlying intentions of the coup d’etat of 1962 was to remove democracy and centralize power in order to promote economic and social movements. Well, that clearly worked brilliantly. With the faltering economy of Tunisia, will a new centralized government emerge to temporarily lessen the impact of the revolution (and end up staying for another 20 years)? Positively speaking though, Egypt will have the support of the U.S. so I predict that their revolution will be more successful than Tunisia.

The revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt (at this stage) remind me of Bakunin's writing on revolutions, especially since the people fought to overthrow the government but not to transfer power. Bakunin was a revolutionary that emphasized anarchy and power to the people. He didn't care to plan out the post-Revolutionary state, which was heavily by Marx. Let's hope that the hubbub will begin to settle down and both nations can chisel a clear path to a strong democracy.