What will Trudeau’s promise of “sunny days” bring the international community?

By L. Boshuyzen
 

Credit: Christopher Policarpio

 

NEW YORK, Oct. 20 – After a decade of Conservative rule the Liberal Party and its leader Justin Trudeau won a decisive majority during the 42^nd federal election yesterday. Canadians made it clear that, after Stephen Harper’s nine year tenure, it was time for a fresh wind—and a young one too: At 43-years-old, Trudeau is to become the second-youngest prime minister in Canada’s history. 

Speaking after his victory in Montreal, Trudeau addressed his supporters in what has become his optimistic signature style: “More than a hundred years ago a great prime minister, Wilfrid Laurier, talked about sunny ways, he knew that politics can be a positive force and that is the message Canadians sent today.”But what message will Canada be sending the international community? Whether foreign policy had much impact on the electorate is uncertain, but Trudeau quickly made it clear it would not go unnoticed in his administration.

Under the generally pro-American Harper, US-Canadian relations were often more than a little strained. First of all the proposed Keystone XL pipeline, which would carry Canadian oil to refineries in the Gulf of Mexico, has stalled in US courts and has not been embraced by the Obama administration. In addition to this the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal  (TPP) that would remove tariffs and other barriers from 12 Pacific Rim nations more than once produced friction – notably over Canada’s protected dairy market and fears for its privileged position within NAFTA as a supplier to the giant US auto industry.

With Trudeau taking on office US-Canadian relations might become stronger again. On Keystone, for instance, Trudeau supports the pipeline but he also made clear that he would prioritize the improved communication and coordination between the US and Canada on its route.  Nor is he a threat to the TPP accord, announced just a few weeks before the election by the outgoing Harper government. Another treaty that Canada is at the point of signing is with Europe: the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA). Similar to TTP, CETA would take away 99% of custom duties and other obstacles and allow business between Canada and Europe to flourish. 

Both are likely to be ratified by the new Liberal parliament, although for a variety of reasons Trudeau has said he “needed to see the fine-print” before issuing a definitive TPP statement. This is a sharp contract from the Liberals’ erstwhile allies, the New Democratic Party (NDP), whose leaders want TPP scrapped and renegotiated. With only 13% of the votes, the NDP will have little say in the ratification debate, especially in light of the Conservative’s support for the treaties.  

One area Trudeau will seek to highlight early on is his differences with Harper’s position on Muslims and Canadian society. Late in the campaign, Harper made statements about women who wear Muslim head-scarves that led some to accuse him of Islamophobia. The contrast with Trudeau in this respect is great and contributed to Harper’s loss of support before voting day. In an interview with the Nationalist, a right-leaning newspaper, a journalist asked the prime minister "What is the greatest threat is to Canada?"  Harper replied it was “Islamicism”. Trudeau, in contrast, repeatedly urged voters to “have faith in your fellow citizens, they are kind and generous, they are open and optimistic. They know in their heart of hearts that a Canadian is a Canadian is a Canadian.”

He has followed up this rhetoric with concrete pledges to absorb more Syrian refugees than the Harper government would allow in. Trudeau promised to take in 25.000 refugees and spend an additional $100 million on humanitarian aid for Syria. He also reversed a Harper policy that slapped visa requirements on Mexicans traveling to Canada, and doubled the number of immigration applications allowed for parents and grand-parents as soon as the government assumes office.

Canadian policy will change drastically in another key area: the country’s willingness to intervene in foreign wars. While the country had its own beach (Juno) at D-Day and fought alongside US forces in Afghanistan after the 9/11 attacks, in 2003 a previous Liberal government declined to support the US-led invasion of Iraq. A poll conducted by the Toronto Star revealed that 7 in 10 Canadians agreed with his decision not to join military efforts in Iraq.  Harper, in an open letter published in The Wall Street Journal before his election, declared this ‘a serious mistake’ and later, by this time Prime Minister, he admitted publicly the mistake was his. The sensitive subject of Canada’s involvement in the war in Afghanistan, Canada’s longest involvement in a war in history, brings up ambivalent sentiments amongst Canadians. Trudeau was bold enough to reference it when sharing his perspectives on Canada’s involvement in Syria: "How Canada can best help is by doing more of the kind of training of infantry troops on the ground that we developed tremendous capacities to do in Afghanistan and in other places."

A final area of change will be Canada’s environmental policy. In contrast to Harper, a climate change skeptic, Trudeau promised to attend the Global Warming Summit in Paris brining new resolutions to cut down CO2 emission, and even calls for partnership with the US and Mexico for an "ambitious North American clean energy and environmental agreement." He also has pledged to introduce new federal regulations to tighten regulation of the energy and mining industries in terms of greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental impacts.