New Sanctions on Iran, with or without Beijing and Moscow

By Eleanor Albert

A New York Times article on Wednesday, March 3rd explained the U.S.’s newly proposed draft for increased sanctions on Iran. The U.S., with the support of Britain, France and Germany, have introduced the idea of expanding sanctions on Iran to include a greater number of businesses involved with uranium enrichment, any businesses profiting or using nuclear energy, Iranian banks, and all individuals associated with the development of nuclear energy. At the first look, the larger scope of sanctions seems to be a credible policy option that could be effective in containing and limiting Iran’s current nuclear development. However, like all international issues, decisions in the international community are complicated – particularly in regard to international security.

Sanctions have been imposed on Iran since 2006: a step past peaceful diplomacy to persuade Iran to terminate its uranium enrichment programs and to establish a medium for dialogue on the future of Iran’s nuclear energy programs. In the past four years, these sanctions have been significant symbolically and have failed to carry out any change in Iran’s activities. For the new proposal to have a legitimate effect there must be an internationally unified front against Iran; Beijing and Moscow will have to be in favor – a difficult task for the other four countries. Moscow is concerned with Iran’s nuclear activity but remains hesitant to support the full extent of the sanctions claiming that the measures are too strong and that the evidence against other businesses and individuals will be insufficient proof. The real obstacle is China. As China continues to grow economically, it is becoming increasingly dependent on energy supplies from other countries and Iran is a key provider of natural gas and oil for China. The Chinese government, while agreeing with Moscow’s concerns, also publicly rejects the notion of further sanctions and urges continued diplomatic relations with Iran to dissuade nuclear proliferation.

While I value the work of the UN and the Security Council, I envision that the discussion of new sanctions will be long, drawn out, controversial, and ultimately no agreement will result from it. And while trying not to be a cynical realist, the idea of new sanctions may very well rally greater support to influence Iran to modify or abandon their nuclear programs. Of course, there is also the possibility that further sanctions will generate animosity toward the U.S. and the West, launch more controversy in the Middle East, and raise tensions internationally – not exactly what the U.S. is looking for right now…