Risks to Global Stability in 2016

By Adrienn Keszei - Oct 12, 2015

 

(Source: http://www.navy.mil/view_image.asp?id=176293 )

New York — As 2016 approaches, it is important to keep close watch of the political and economic risks worldwide to evaluate their potential global impact. Although it is difficult to precisely assess the consequences of single events in terms of global stability, the following list explains some of the major risks for the following year(s):

-          The Russian intervention in Syria may have wide-ranging global consequences for the next year. Although a possible clash with the U.S. over their different strategies to solve the Syrian civil war is a low probability risk, if it happens, the conflict will have high risk implications for global stability. While Putin’s decision to help the Syrian government defeat the militant groups may produce some positive results in the short term, it is possible that the country will not be able to fully control the extent of its involvement in the civil war. It is possible that the following events will require a deeper involvement from the Russian military, which could alienate the Russian public from Putin. Depending on how long and how deep Putin’s involvement in the civil war will be, it may have serious political consequences for Putin’s regime in the long term.

-          The Paris Climate Conference in December 2015 may have significant global implications for the following years. As the 190 nations will meet, their differing views are likely to cause a major falling out between the industrialized and the emerging markets. Although numerous countries have previously committed to cutting their greenhouse gas emissions to some extent, more serious efforts must be made to limit the emerging threat of the greenhouse effect. However, even if the developed countries could agree to significantly change their energy policies, poor states do not have the financial means to invest in clean technology. They would expect rich countries to provide the funding for them to adapt their economy and infrastructure to the new global energy policies. Even if an agreement is reached regarding the environmental issues, cooperation between the participating states will be problematic.

-          The stagnation of the Eurozone is likely to remain a major problem for the next year. Ever since the global financial crisis of 2007-08, the economy of the European Union has been unable to return to its previous growth-path. The present migrant crisis will further reduce the prospects of major GDP growth for 2016, as most of the developed countries in the bloc will have to focus on restructuring their immigration policies and resolving short-term issues related to the huge influx of migrants. Although a turnaround is not out of the picture, the current GDP growth path of the EU is quite worrying, and raises questions in terms of its ability to sustain the bloc and lift the Eurozone from stagnation.

-          Although at first glance water scarcity may seem like an isolated issue only influencing specific countries and regions, it is becoming a global phenomenon. Poor water management is causing severe damages to the environment in the Middle East, Africa, and in parts of Asia as well. Australia is under extreme pressure due to the growing drought, and other developed countries are threatened as well—California in the U.S. has been especially challenged by water shortage. Furthermore, it is also threatening business and industry interests; the extractive industry, agribusiness or the manufacturing sector all heavily rely on water. The regulatory risks due to the new policies will further aggravate the investment risk, causing tremendous impacts for the global economy. In addition, geopolitical tensions are also expected to cause disputes over water resources in many regions.

-          The recent developments in the conflict between the government forces and the militant Kurdish PKK group are raising the risk of a Turkish civil war. Militant attacks on the Turkish military and the serious nationalist demonstrations have shown that the current climate of political polarization might lead to open conflict between the two sides. Although at this point it may be a moderate risk only, in case of another civil war ensues, it is unknown how serious the conflict could become. It may happen that military intervention from other countries will be necessary. As civil wars in the neighboring region have been damaging for global stability, a conflict in Turkey would certainly upset world politics even more.

Although some of the risks discussed above may have a low probability at present, it is crucial to carefully consider all the potential risks for the following years, so that we can take evasive action early on. Looking at risks from different perspectives may always change the order of priority, however, decision makers must realize that all threats are concurrently present and all of them need to be mitigated to ensure global stability.