Threats to Global Stability 2016 - Living in Dangerous Times

by Craig Moorhead

NEW YORK - 2016 is shaping up to be one of the most dangerous years in history. As 2015 comes to a close, the world is set to enter a period of instability that has not been seen since before the World Wars. As the uni-polar system continues to fall apart and the status quo of Western supremacy is challenged, frightening possibilities open up for instability across the globe.

§  Global Terrorism

Today's political climate is several magnitudes worse than the one which spawned 9/11. Across the Islamic world, terrorist groups like the Islamic State and the Taliban are resurgent. Political will in the West to fight terrorism is dwindling, this has meant a draw down in U.S. and NATO military presence in both Afghanistan and Iraq. As the troops get ready to come home, the sentiment that the 'War on Terror' is over has begun to set in on the home front, when in fact: the opposite is true. If the war is indeed over it is only because we have lost. We now see this manifested in the Taliban's efforts to retake an already weak an unstable Afghanistan. Western complacency will facilitate further expansion of the Islamic State and its allies in 2016; we should be prepared for greater efforts by these groups to inspire attacks in Western countries, continually increasing in scale and scope.

§  Conflict in Eastern Europe

Vladimir Putin has made it clear that he will not go gently into the good night that the United States and its NATO allies had planned for him. The crisis in Ukraine shows no signs of resolution as 2015 winds down and Putin has effectively called NATO's bluff yet again by ramping up Russian involvement in Syria. Embroiled in an economic downturn as a result of the sanctions applied to it for meddling in Ukraine, Russia will continue to act aggressively in order to increase access to resources and economic markets in an effort to reverse its downward slide. With unconfirmed reports that Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet over the weekend, the tensions in Eastern Europe are primed to erupt at any moment. Expect more activity from Russia in the Baltic states in 2016, and in turn more action from the West to cripple Russia's economy.

§  Rise of China

2015 saw China's economic growth begin to level off, but the overall outlook is still strong. China will continue to use this to elevate is position within the international community. Chinese efforts to militarize the South China Sea will continue, destabilizing the region as other South East Asian nations scramble to react to its threatening posture. As the U.S. economy continues to struggle, and commitments in the Middle East and Europe continue to sap its military capacity; their ability to project power in the Pacific will diminish. Nations currently hosting U.S. forces may ask them to leave and instead turn to China as a regional hegemon to secure their interests.

§  Organised Criminal Activity in Mexico

With the eyes of the Western world focused elsewhere, the cartels of Mexico will continue to grow in the United States shadow. Despite being better armed, better financed, and arguably more violent than terrorist groups like the Islamic State; drug cartels like Los Zetas are largely absent from the political narrative in the West. 2015 saw these groups activities in Mexico continue to grow in kidnapping and extortion. With the Mexican government unable to turn the tide, Mexico will become more unsafe for foreigners; tourism in the region will continue to drop-off, threatening the economic stability of the government. If ignored, Mexico could descend into a Narco-State, the likes of which not seen since Pablo Escobar's Colombia.

§  Iran and the Bomb

Iran recently came to an agreement with the P5+1 regarding its nuclear program. In the face of the perceived success of this agreement, Iran maintains that this does not signal closer ties with the West and has reaffirmed its pledge to annihilate Israel. Already, the Iranians have flirted with violating the terms of the Nuclear Deal, test firing long range missiles. The influx of funds the new deal is expected to bring, combined with an uncertain situation facing the U.S. in the form of Russia and China, will open the door for Iran to act towards achieving its political objectives. Iran will expand its support for terrorism abroad through it's Quds Force, contributing to increased instability in the Middle East.