What will Trudeau’s promise of “sunny days” bring the international community?

By L. Boshuyzen
 

Credit: Christopher Policarpio

 

NEW YORK, Oct. 20 – After a decade of Conservative rule the Liberal Party and its leader Justin Trudeau won a decisive majority during the 42^nd federal election yesterday. Canadians made it clear that, after Stephen Harper’s nine year tenure, it was time for a fresh wind—and a young one too: At 43-years-old, Trudeau is to become the second-youngest prime minister in Canada’s history. 

Speaking after his victory in Montreal, Trudeau addressed his supporters in what has become his optimistic signature style: “More than a hundred years ago a great prime minister, Wilfrid Laurier, talked about sunny ways, he knew that politics can be a positive force and that is the message Canadians sent today.”But what message will Canada be sending the international community? Whether foreign policy had much impact on the electorate is uncertain, but Trudeau quickly made it clear it would not go unnoticed in his administration.

Under the generally pro-American Harper, US-Canadian relations were often more than a little strained. First of all the proposed Keystone XL pipeline, which would carry Canadian oil to refineries in the Gulf of Mexico, has stalled in US courts and has not been embraced by the Obama administration. In addition to this the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal  (TPP) that would remove tariffs and other barriers from 12 Pacific Rim nations more than once produced friction – notably over Canada’s protected dairy market and fears for its privileged position within NAFTA as a supplier to the giant US auto industry.

With Trudeau taking on office US-Canadian relations might become stronger again. On Keystone, for instance, Trudeau supports the pipeline but he also made clear that he would prioritize the improved communication and coordination between the US and Canada on its route.  Nor is he a threat to the TPP accord, announced just a few weeks before the election by the outgoing Harper government. Another treaty that Canada is at the point of signing is with Europe: the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA). Similar to TTP, CETA would take away 99% of custom duties and other obstacles and allow business between Canada and Europe to flourish. 

Both are likely to be ratified by the new Liberal parliament, although for a variety of reasons Trudeau has said he “needed to see the fine-print” before issuing a definitive TPP statement. This is a sharp contract from the Liberals’ erstwhile allies, the New Democratic Party (NDP), whose leaders want TPP scrapped and renegotiated. With only 13% of the votes, the NDP will have little say in the ratification debate, especially in light of the Conservative’s support for the treaties.  

One area Trudeau will seek to highlight early on is his differences with Harper’s position on Muslims and Canadian society. Late in the campaign, Harper made statements about women who wear Muslim head-scarves that led some to accuse him of Islamophobia. The contrast with Trudeau in this respect is great and contributed to Harper’s loss of support before voting day. In an interview with the Nationalist, a right-leaning newspaper, a journalist asked the prime minister "What is the greatest threat is to Canada?"  Harper replied it was “Islamicism”. Trudeau, in contrast, repeatedly urged voters to “have faith in your fellow citizens, they are kind and generous, they are open and optimistic. They know in their heart of hearts that a Canadian is a Canadian is a Canadian.”

He has followed up this rhetoric with concrete pledges to absorb more Syrian refugees than the Harper government would allow in. Trudeau promised to take in 25.000 refugees and spend an additional $100 million on humanitarian aid for Syria. He also reversed a Harper policy that slapped visa requirements on Mexicans traveling to Canada, and doubled the number of immigration applications allowed for parents and grand-parents as soon as the government assumes office.

Canadian policy will change drastically in another key area: the country’s willingness to intervene in foreign wars. While the country had its own beach (Juno) at D-Day and fought alongside US forces in Afghanistan after the 9/11 attacks, in 2003 a previous Liberal government declined to support the US-led invasion of Iraq. A poll conducted by the Toronto Star revealed that 7 in 10 Canadians agreed with his decision not to join military efforts in Iraq.  Harper, in an open letter published in The Wall Street Journal before his election, declared this ‘a serious mistake’ and later, by this time Prime Minister, he admitted publicly the mistake was his. The sensitive subject of Canada’s involvement in the war in Afghanistan, Canada’s longest involvement in a war in history, brings up ambivalent sentiments amongst Canadians. Trudeau was bold enough to reference it when sharing his perspectives on Canada’s involvement in Syria: "How Canada can best help is by doing more of the kind of training of infantry troops on the ground that we developed tremendous capacities to do in Afghanistan and in other places."

A final area of change will be Canada’s environmental policy. In contrast to Harper, a climate change skeptic, Trudeau promised to attend the Global Warming Summit in Paris brining new resolutions to cut down CO2 emission, and even calls for partnership with the US and Mexico for an "ambitious North American clean energy and environmental agreement." He also has pledged to introduce new federal regulations to tighten regulation of the energy and mining industries in terms of greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental impacts.

Has the Time Come for a New Era of Trudeaumania?

By Adrienn Keszei

NEW YORK, Oct 21—The Liberal Party won the October 19 Canadian election with an unanticipated majority of 183 seats in parliament, vaulting them from third to first place in Parliament in the course of only one election. Their victory signals the beginning of a new era after 15 years of mostly unstable politics due to minority governments and weak majorities. The voters demonstrated their readiness for a more activist government to take immediate action and stimulate economic growth, which was a cardinal point in the party’s political campaign.

As Liberal leader Justin Trudeau is expected to take office on November 4, 2015, Canada will take a sharp turn away from long-serving Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s conservative politics. After the exceptional political turnaround for Trudeau’s party, he will have the responsibility to make sure the government delivers on its campaign promises. He also has the additional burden of following in the footsteps of his father, Pierre Trudeau, who dominated Canadian politics for decades—inspiring a sensation called Trudeaumania—and held the post twice during the 1970s and 1980s.  

Justin Trudeau is the first child of a former Prime Minister ever to be elected to head the government. Pierre Trudeau’s government had remarkable political achievements, so the new Liberal leader, who at 43 is also the second-youngest Canadian prime minister to hold the post, is now under significant pressure to prove himself as the head of state and also as a worthy successor of his father’s political legacy, although the campaign was consciously trying to distance him from the former prime minister in order to paint him as an independent political figure.

‘Justin’, as he was often called during his campaign, used to be in the public eye as a child, but after his father left office, he lived a relatively private life, graduated from the University of British Columbia and became a teacher. However, in 1998, an unfortunate accident forced him back into the limelight; his youngest sibling, Michel, died in an avalanche in British Columbia during a skiing trip, which inspired the eldest Trudeau son to campaign for improving avalanche safety measures.

In spite of Conservative attacks on Trudeau, which dubbed him an inexperienced “pretty boy” not ready to govern a country, the prime minister-elect expressed his support for the Liberal Party from a young age and used his public status to advocate change and speak out about various issues. For instance, he inaugurated the Trudeau Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies at the University of Toronto with his brother Alexandre, in 2004, he was part of a public campaign against a zinc mine to protect a UN World Heritage Site, and in 2006 he was part of a rally to promote Canadian support in the fight against the Darfur crisis.  These examples of Trudeau’s previous public activities demonstrate his interest in a wide variety of issues and his willingness to take action and bring about change.

His political beginnings go back to 2007, when he was nominated in the Papineau riding. In 2008, he became a Member of Parliament, and got re-elected three years later. He was an exemplary young force within the Liberals—in 2009, he was chosen to be the party’s critic for multiculturalism and youth, and appointed a year later as critic for youth, citizenship, and immigration. Although many encouraged him to run for leadership of the Liberal Party, he declined the offer several times, citing his eagerness to focus on his young family, until in 2012 he finally declared his intention to run for leadership.

After he takes office, Canadians can expect policy changes in economic, social, and environmental policies, as well as in the country’s foreign affairs.

In his campaign Trudeau committed to stimulate the economy, which will not be an easy task, considering the present low prospects for future growth. In order to boost the economy, he plans to double the national infrastructure spending, creating a short-term deficit. He also proposed to increase taxes on those earning more than $200,000 a year, in an attempt to help the less affluent by lowering the taxes for middle-class citizens.

Trudeau indicated that his government would accept 25,000 Syrian migrants by January 2016, and invest a large sum of money to improve the progress of refugee application procedures.  He is also expected to create a new line of social policies. The significance of fundamental rights in relation to religion and ethnicity will be highlighted, as indicated by the Liberals’ strong opposition regarding Harper’s previously proposed ban on public servants wearing the Muslim headscarf known as the niqab. During his campaign, Trudeau also proposed to drop visa requirements for Mexicans, reversing previous policies implemented by the Conservatives.  

Similarly to the Australian policy changes after Turnbull took office, Trudeau aims to change Canadian environmental regulations considerably, in which the Paris Climate Change Conference this December will be a turning point. He plans to reduce carbon emissions and work out strategies to support each province to achieve the new environmental goals.

A decisive change of direction is expected in Canada’s foreign affairs too, as Trudeau has often indicated his willingness to restore relations with Iran, after Harper’s government cut all ties with the country three years ago. The future prime minister also wishes to create a new strategy to battle the Islamic State, and withdraw Canada’s bombers from the conflict in the Middle East.

Trudeau, similarly to Obama in 2008, built his campaign around youth and change – even his campaign slogan, ‘Real Change Now’, alludes to that of the American president’s campaign slogans – putting huge pressure on himself. It has yet to be proven whether or not the Liberals can keep up their upward trajectory and bring about the change they promised to the Canadian people.

International Law Revisited

In a previous post I discussed the controversy of Cheney visiting Canada. Because Canadian law permits the country to arrest people suspected of war crimes, activists suggested that it was necessary for authorities to detain the former vice-president upon his arrival.

Now, with an upcoming visit on October 20 to British Columbia scheduled by former President George W. Bush, the same type of calls to action are coming out.

Bush has admitted, sometimes proudly, to the use of (under his authorization) waterboarding and other forms of torture that are illegal under international agreements. Due to this reasoning, Bush previously cancelled a trip to Switzerland due to calls for his arrest and rumours that victims would file complaints against him.

According to Human Rights Watch, Canada can charge Bush for torture even without his presence in the country because one of the victims was a Canadian citizen. However, his presence in the country gives authorities even more reason to detain him.

In the previous post I questioned what would become of Canadian-American relations if they were to bring charges against such prominent American political figures. Although I still believe this to be one of the most key issues, I have also now noticed the polarization on the topic. Most of the official statements as well as comments on the online news articles are either calling for authorities to take action or claiming that the activist organizations have lost their minds.

For example, Immigration and Citizenship Minister Jason Kenney suggests that Amnesty International (one of the groups calling Canada to take action), “cherry picks cases to publicize based on ideology." He questions why the group did not seek a court order barring Cuban leader Fidel Castro.

This sort of dialectic makes me wonder why more more moderate action isn't just taken such as barring Bush's entry into Canada. I suspect that this still would not be an ideal solution and would still hurt Canadian-American relations, but is a strong compromise.

This story is gathering even more attention in light of the "Occupy" protests. A group in British Columbia posted on their Twitter page:

"When WAR CRIMINAL Bush comes to Surrey October 20th, we will meet him with a FLASH OCCUPATION. Expect us"

I question whether this sort of issue really relates to the Occupy movement, but also, doesn't a "flash occupation" imply surprise and spontaneity? Not days of advanced notice? I wonder if this visit is being called out by various organizations simply to bring attentions to themselves.

More reasonably, the Occupy group asked the Mayor to cancel Bush's visit.

I think that the strong oppositions in this controversy highlight the fact that there is no easy compromise. An interesting article in the Canadian newspaper The National Post, sets up a question and answer format discussing what options Canada truly has and the contentions related to Bush's visit.

- Danielle Foster