5 greatest risks to global stability looming ahead in 2016

By Anya Degtyarenko 

NEW YORK, Oct. 12 — With the end of the Cold War, the world entered the new era: multiple regional economic and political powers are about to reshape the world order. The startling trends had been much in evidence during 2015: complete breakdown in relations between the US and Russia with Putin’s aggressiveness; an escalating international crisis in the Middle East, a shattering economic and social state of the European Union, and the fearful economic effect of Chinese slowdown. While the world doesn’t seem close to “stable” today, the global stability implies the existing political status quo, allowing moderate and predictable international economic and social progress. Geopolitical factors that threaten the predictable order are, therefore, the risks causing global instability. Five of these top risks will be prominent in 2016. 

1. European Instability

European integrity and reputation of stability will continue to be challenged in 2016.  Eurozone economic weakness, coupled with the migration crisis and following political repercussions will be hitting European Union in its weak spots. The inflation rate has fallen again in 3rd quarter of 2015, to just 0.3 percent, and the unemployment rate is stuck at 11.5 percent — and prospects for 2016 might be worse. Economic weakness makes the EU reluctant to hurt Moscow; cutting it off from the global financial system would strike the EU too. Following the economic fragility, “Brexit”, the possibility of Britain quitting the EU, is the next risk sign of  European fragmenting. Economic stagnation and lack of political cooperation produced infirm responses to the Ukraine, Iraqi and Syrian crises. The bottom line of  the list is a migration crisis with no obvious solution. Migrant inflow from the African continent, dictated by demography and economic gaps, is going to increase and the EU must develop a common approach or risk further political and social challenges to its unity. 

2. China

While the world is focused on the situation in Middle East, ISIS and Putin, the problem with China will approach shortly. The growth targets for 2016 keep lowering, and it will affect China’s trade partners at first place. Commodities dependent countries booming on exports to China, like Japan, Brazil, Australia, Indonesia, Thailand, will continue to suffer, raising the risk of political unrest in the most unstable of them. GDP in the US and already the struggling and the Eurozone will decline. While the world is anticipating China’s economic slowdown, the Chinese Communist Party seeks to demonstrate its political and military power. It is building up its influence in the South Sea and closed the air space in Eastern China, which the US does not recognize. Its actions in Syria pose a major threat to the US-allies in the Middle East. Chinese hackers are believed to pose threat to the US cyber security. On top of the economic interdependence between the US and China, the political tension between powers will highly increase. 


3. The Middle East 

The expansion of the Islamic State, as well as Saudi Arabia and Iran, will continue to complicate the situation in the Middle East. ISIS ideology will continue to spread out, setting up new units and disrupting the status quo power of the Sunni countries like Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates. Meanwhile, the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians is unresolved, Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon will promote violent  clashes with Israel. With the US-Iran nuclear deal and impending lifting of sanctions, the struggle for dominance between Iran and Saudis will feed violent proxy wars in the region like those underway in Syria and Yemen. The threat of the Assad regime collapse and his successor will be on the agenda of 2016. With the US scheduled to withdraw from Afghanistan in 2016, there is a risk of the collapse of Afghanistan and possibly Pakistan into semi-failed states. Some of these conflicts may yield an actual oil supply disruption, as in 1973, 1979, and 1990, with the results reflected in risking prices. Weakened economies and civil wars in Lebanon, Jordan, Syria and Turkey, will turn millions of people into refugees and continue to destabilize Europe economically and socially. Furthermore, lasting hopelessness and growing unemployment will produce more anti-western jihadists among Arab Youth who will find their way to stage terrorist attacks in the US, Europe or Russia. 



4. Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia will contribute to global instability and already existing turmoil in the Middle East. Its importance as an oil exporting nation has made economic interdependence with the West inevitable, That, in turn, set up strong political and military relationships that at times have been a source of tension for both sides that will be tested in 2016. Saudi Arabia is facing multiple risks for its economy, succession and regional stability. With the trend favoring continued low oil prices, the Saudi budget deficit will increase, which was already $100 billion in 2015. This will produce risks for the Kingdom’s credit rating, capital outflows and negative responses on international markets. As the country will be close to running out of its financial and oil reserves, the region will be more destabilized. Besides this tight economic situation, the US-Iran nuclear deal shuttered the 70 year history of the American and Saudi relationships of the status quo powers. Russia’s dramatic intervention to the balance of power  in the Middle East will signal that the US is not responsible for defending its friends and allies anymore. With ongoing succession conspiracy inside the House of Saud, that  will leave the Saudis more vulnerable than ever, and cause more friction in the relations with Iran.  


5. Russia 

Russia is a tricky factor when calculating global destabilization factors in 2016. Against the backdrop of the weak Eurozone, the economic sanctions imposed after Crimea were not enough to mortally weaken Russia. Arguably, they made Putin even more aggressive and revisionist. As the Russian economy tumbles, Putin will increase its anti-Western economic policy, targeting the companies and investors inside of Russia. Its nuclear capability and intend on territorial and political expansion, especially in the region of the US-allies, continues to pose threat to the security of Western world and overall, global stability. With the Ukraine left in the “frozen conflict” state, Putin moved his attention to Syria. Putin’s intervention in Syria intends to insert Russia as a rival to the US-superpower role in the regional conflict. That clearly had implications for further extension beyond the region. Russia will continue its provocative behavior against NATO states (e.g. violating Turkey air space).  Further, China uniting with Russia against ISIS and US-backed allies will pose great risk of expelling NATO as a power organization and eventually shifting the US influence in the region. Failure to defend the NATO ally from Russia-China coalition will disrupt the whole balance of power and the attempt of the US to return to its primary power in the region will trigger the World War III. 

UN Speech and Syria tragedy: how does Putin visit affect the US-Russia troubling relationship?

Jewel Samand/Getty Images 

By Anya Degtyarenko

NEW YORK, Sept. 27 — Russian President Vladimir Putin’s address to the U.N. General Assembly on Monday will be his first such appearance since 2005. Putin’s aides have billed the speech as a bold proposal that could provide a way out of the Syrian crisis. In fact, by changing to topic of conversation from Ukraine to Syria, Putin the would-be peacemaker sees “a golden opportunity,” as New York Times noted last week, to serve his strategic goals.

For the most of the world, Syria is a scene of tragedy. Russia’s perspective is unique, however, as one of the few major powers (Iran being the other) that supports the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The US and others have consistently rejected the notion that support for Assad is the best way to counter the rise of the bloody fanatics of the Islamic State (ISIS). Putin, we can assume, will insist on disagreeing at the UN this week.

The details of Putin’s address remain secret but the goal of breaking the two-year isolation of Russia appeared to be well on the way to being achieved. On Thursday, President Barack Obama agreed to what the White House said were "repeated requests" for a meeting with Vladimir Putin. The two leaders were reported to have their formal meeting on the margins of the United Nations General Assembly on Monday.

“Until the beginning of the Russian operation in Syria, the US-Russia relationship looked like chess game, in which one player does not pay attention to the board in general (USA), and the other party is constantly moving and hustling to draw attention to yourself, ” said Vasily Gatov, Senior Fellow of USC Annenberg Center on Communication Leadership & Policy. He added that while Syria is an important argument in the equation, this is not exactly a transformative attention and American policy is not going to change.”

Igor Mintusov, Russian political consultant and professional manager of election campaigns, agreed.“For Putin, the Syria issue is the reason to meet with Obama while for Obama, it is the reason to attend the meeting.”

Coincide general consensus exists among Russian affairs experts that no smooth way forward exists for US-Russia relations in spite of Putin’s recent diplomatic efforts. Award-winning journalist and Russian affairs analyst Andrew Nagorski considers that Putin's speech at the UN or his meeting with Obama won’t change anything fundamentally in the US-Russia relationship: “It's a transparent attempt by Putin to try to demonstrate that Russia still counts on the world scene. His country and its citizens are paying the price for those destructive policies.” Nagorski remarked the irony of that Putin “had many chances early in his rule to work with the West and the rest of the world to promote an agenda that would be a win-win situation.” And regardless of the UN speech, “those are all blown chances now.”

The prominent Russian political consultant Evgeny Minchenko claimed that “we find ourselves in a situation of the New Cold War, which is not easy to get out.” Evgeny pointed out that the talks are less likely to improve the relationships: “Americans pay much more attention to overthrow Assad. So the role of Putin, who protects the illegitimate government of Syria, can only be seen as  negative.” He also proposed that while Obama’s mandate is almost over, Putin is going to run for another term in 2018 and probably stay until 2024. Mark Galeotti, an expert in transnational crime and Russian security affairs, is skeptical about progress between Putin and Obama. “Moscow will need to make some substantive moves over the Donbas (Eastern Ukraine) before there can be any greater reward,” Mark explained that out of the talks with Washington. He expected Putin to push but for Obama to hold the line because “after all, it rankles that at present the Americans are treating Moscow as even more of a pariah than Tehran.”

Meanwhile, far from the halls of power, communities of ethnic Russians and Ukrainians worldwide are waiting for the outcome of Putin’s speech. In New York, “A Stand Up To Putin at the UN” rally got under way at 10 a.m. on Sunday, the morning before the speech. Another rally was to take place when Putin starts his speech on Monday. Vera Golubkova, who attended the Sunday protest, said: “For me it is first of all an act of solidarity with Ukrainians. I was born and raised in Russia. There is a lot of tension not just between Russian and Ukraine, but also between Russian and Ukrainian communities in the US. It is important for me to let local Ukrainians know that not all Russians have lost their minds.”

Considering the described troubling factors in the history of US-Russia relations, the tension is evident. Expert opinion hints towards a quite negative perspective of the relations. The opinion of Russian and Eastern European immigrants, however, does not represent the opinion of Russian citizens, who hope to benefit from Putin’s diplomacy. The war against ISIS is the point where US and Russian interests intersect and explain the willingness of Washington to understand Putin’s decisions. The negotiations on Syria cannot, however, compromise Putin’s intervention in Ukraine. The situation is likely to remain painful and “frozen” until time and, possibly, the results of the upcoming presidential elections in both countries push some major shift towards progress.

The Pope in America – Can one swallow make a (Catholic) summer?

By J.F. Mezo

Photo by Blink Ofanaye: 

https://www.flickr.com/photos/blinkofanaye/21042696064/ 

NEW YORK, Sept. 18 – The kids are back in school, the leaves are turning red, and Pope Francis is getting ready for his American visit starting on September 22. Although the Pope will only spend 5 days in the US before flying back to Rome, he is ready to shake things up and prove, yet again, that the Catholic Church made its smartest move in a long while when making him Pope.

After a long period of drifting further and further away from the secular world, Pope Francis has made repeated efforts to reconnect the Church to the bloodstream of the 21^st century. By now we all know that Pope Francis is not afraid to do things differently – just remember the shock of the Vatican after he proclaimed that he will not be moving into the papal palace. But his newest decision might carry unusual significance.

On September 24, the Pope is going to speak to the Congress for the first time in history.  This coming together of the political and the religious might prove oddly relevant not merely because the motto “In God We Trust” is written in block capitals on the central wall behind the Speaker’s rostrum in the House Chamber. Recently, a number of significant political figures, such as Hilary Clinton, openly expressed their admiration for Pope Francis, opening the door between the Church and the State – and the Pope is not afraid to step over the threshold.

However, this step might prove a turning point in the history of Catholicism, as it will no doubt have a great influence on whether the Church will be able to secure its last Western stronghold in the face of growing secularism. Just in the four years between 2010 and 2014, the share of Christians within the US population dropped from 78.4% to 70.6% according to Pew Research’s survey, as more and more people abandoned their faith and joined the group of those who are not affiliated with any religious denominations. Under Pope Benedict XVI’s years as the head of the Catholic Church, a special sense of disillusionment swept over those groups within the Christian community who were seeking a modern approach to and reinterpretation of many Catholic teachings that might have made sense at the time of their creation but whose revision was, even then, long overdue.

Among those were the Catholic Church’s strict views on abortion, the use of contraception and gay rights – issues Pope Benedict failed to appropriately address. This has not only earned him a reputation of being a rigorous, conservative man but also made him largely unpopular. Even the launch of the official papal Twitter account (@Pontifex) backfired on him as he failed to understand that joining social media was not the kind of modern approach to faith that Catholics have long been asking for. 

However, Pope Francis knew better. Although he stands by many Catholic teachings that are regarded by many as past their due date, he doesn’t seem to be afraid to push the boundaries. "This jubilee Year of Mercy excludes no one," Pope Francis stated in a letter to Archbishop Rino Fisichella in September 2015, right before making the unprecedented gesture of offering forgiveness for the “sin of abortion”.

This was not his first meddling in secular affairs this year. Pope Francis surprised many when he joined the debate on climate change in May or when called for global wealth-redistribution in July. The Pope seems to make a genuine effort to bridge the divide between the Catholic Church and the secular world, that deepened significantly under the reign of Pope Benedict and his predecessors. Many see in him what they failed to see in Pope Benedict; a progressive thinker and a moderate reformer, who can lead by example and show the world what it means to be a good Christian in this day and age.

As several public figures who are not themselves Catholic (the list includes non-religious Jim Carrey and atheist Bill Maher) spoke up in his favour, many have been hoping that Pope Francis and his modern approach will be able to win back at least some of those who left the Church because of its former unwillingness to adapt. And indeed, when he speaks to the Congress on September 24, America will be listening. Thanks to Pope Francis’ wide appeal, the USA’s Hispanic community, Christians, scholars, atheists, unaffiliated people and those simply interested in all things Congress will all tune in on Thursday. For what feels like the first time in a long while, people are generally interested in what the Church has to say – and not only about the psalms. In a country that has always been proud of its Christian values, people have long been ready for a genuine discussion between the Church and the State.  And thanks to Pope Francis, that now seems to be within reach.

Oh boy, have we come a long way since the news that generated the most interest about the Pope was when a Twitter user asked Pope Benedict if it hurt when Darth Vader threw him down the reactor shaft.