Assad is Still in Power (O yea....and he has killed 4,000 of his own people)

Jordan's King Abdullah told the BBC yesterday that if he were Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, he would step down as president. 'I would step down and make sure whoever comes behind me has the ability to change the status-quo that we’re seeing.' On Saturday, the Arab League suspended Syria and called on its government to stop the violence against protesters. The League said that it will impose economic and political sanctions on the Syrian government and will also meet with opposition leaders in the country. They are also expected to make a similar condemnation this week, along with most Western leaders.

The White House added yesterday that President Assad was increasingly isolated, and said that he had lost his legitimacy to lead. 'It is clear that the Assad regime is continuing to be isolated, that the political pressure on them is building,' said White House spokesperson Josh Earnest.

40 Syrians were reported to have been killed in fighting yesterday between forces loyal to President Assad and anti-government forces.

This all appears to be productive, but is in fact futile. Assad knows that Russia and China will never back similar measures that they did against Libya and he knows that international sanctions can only go so far. The conflict in Libya helped secure, not deter Assad’s reign and condemned four thousand activists to death. With the Euro crisis, 2012 US elections, the wider Arab Spring, Russia and China’s veto and Iran’s nuclear program, world leaders have their plates full and don’t want and in some cases can’t handle and even afford another issue to deal with. As long Assad keeps this now, civil war in his country as a domestic conflict and affair and not let the troubles in his country escalate beyond his boarders, it is pretty clear he will be the Syrian President this time next year – especially if the West has nothing to with it. They can just congratulate each other about a successful Libyan mission.

-Roy.

Security Council Resolutions WILL NOT Resolve Anything Regarding Syria

Yesterday, a European-drafted United Nations Security Council resolution threatening sanctions against the Syrian regime failed to pass, after Russia and China used their veto to ensure its failure. The resolution was tabled because of the ongoing killing by the Syrian regime of peaceful protesters demanding reform. More than 2,700 people have been killed in Syria since the uprising against the dictatorial rule of Assad began in mid-April. The vote in the UNSC was 9-2, with Russia and China opposed, and India, South Africa, Brazil and Lebanon abstaining.

In a response to the UNSC tabling (and not passing) this resolution, the Jerusalem Post reported that President Assad told the Turkish Foreign Minister:

"If a crazy measure is taken (a NATO attack) against Damascus, I will need not more than six hours to transfer hundreds of rockets and missiles to the Golan Heights to fire them at Tel Aviv. All these events will happen in three hours, and in the following three hours, Iran will attack the US warships in the Persian Gulf and the US and European interests will be targeted simultaneously," Assad said, according to FARS."

This post isn't commenting on how ridiculous it is that Assad can and is continuing to kill his own people in order to hold on to his Presidency. Nor is this post commenting on the fact that Russia and China think this does not require international condemnation. However, I understand why they are blocking this ultimately powerless resolution. It is due to their joint principle of national sovereignty, their shared low priority of promoting human rights and the fact that, if they support the toppling of a dictator, maybe, their own citizens may feel that they too can ask for more openness and transparency in their own countries.

This post is commenting on how far President Assad will go to keep power and how many regional factions, conflicts and ultimately, lives, he feels he could and would exploit as well as allow to be lost in the process.

Assad's comments are ultimately pointless as the international community right now is sitting on their hands, still congratulating each other on "liberating" Libya. They will exacerbate local tensions, force Israel to respond (because that is what Israel does best, respond with force to threats) and add international complications to a domestic, political situation.

No country has the right to publically threaten other states. Assad, does not only threaten his neighbors in his statement, but Europe and American too. How can the international community disregard these threats? Israel is threatened all the time. So how is this different?

President Assad has already proven that he will go to extraordinary lengths domestically to keep his presidency. And, as far as he is concerned, it has worked fine: He is still the Leader of Syria. Hence, anyone who thinks that he will not take this conflict out of Syria and inflict these troubles on his neighbors (Israel and Turkey) are mistaken. Why would he not? Assad has attacked Israel before, he supports the terror organizations, such as Hamas which attacks Israel often and he talks about attacking Israel again and killing Israelis all the time! We have seen what he will do to his own people. Why wouldn't he do the same, if not worse to his sworn enemies – Israel?

The situation looks bleak for the Syrian people as well as the wider region. The International Community needs to realize that:

1. This situation has little to do with international sovereignty (Russia and China). President Bashar al-Assad is a dictator not a leader.
2. Sanctions and resolutions will do nothing to resolve the situation, they will just further exacerbate it.
3. President Bashar al-Assad doesn’t care anymore about anything apart from keeping his reign. He will not stop because UN Security Council asks him to so.

The one positive that can come from this situation is that Turkey, Israel and other neighboring states can find a common ground to stop this situation from unfolding around them, if they haven’t started to do so already (Mosad is pretty quick off its feet). Hence, fixing other regional tensions.

I know I haven't suggested an alternative course of action, nor is what I am saying certain to happen. But I do know that two things are for certain: the international community’s current course of action is not working and if Assad is to fall he will fall causing as much damage as he possibly can. This is because he would have NOTHING to loose and EVERYTHING to gain. President Assad has already proven that this fall won’t take place without a fight, it is now up to the international community to decide what type of fight this is and hence, who the winner is. Or they can sit on their hands a little longer and talk about Libya.

- Roy