Is the Media Getting Iraq Wrong...Again?

By Elias Isquith

If you've been following the news out of Iraq, you'd be forgiven for feeling a certain anxiety - even dread - over the country's prospects after the US withdraws (assuming that even occurs). And you wouldn't be alone.

But, for what it's worth - and to his credit - Tom Ricks has published over at his Foreign Policy blog a sort of pick-me-up for those of us worried that the United States will not be able to walk away from Mesopotamia so soon. Written by Nir Rosen, "a fellow at the NYU Center on Law and Security," this guest-post depicts an Iraq that, while far from ready to be your no. 1 Spring Break destination, is nevertheless far from the precipice of the abyss. It's worth a read in full, but in essence, Rosen argues that the media is spending too much of its time focusing on Iraqi politicians' words and too little time talking to the Iraqi Man-On-the-Street:

Iraqis on the street are no longer scared of rival militias so much, or of being exterminated and they no longer have as much support for the religious parties. Maliki is still perceived by many to be not very sectarian and not very religious, and more of a "nationalist." Another thing people would notice if they focused on "the street" is that the militias are finished, the Awakening Groups/SOIs are finished, so violence is limited to assassinations with silencers and sticky bombs and the occasional spectacular terrorist attack -- all manageable and not strategically important, even if tragic. Politicians might be talking the sectarian talk but Iraqis have grown very cynical.

The real take-away is that, "When you talk to [Iraqis] they tell you that the sectarian phase is over."

I think most American pundits (or at least the many who supported the war initially) prognosticate on Iraq today with extreme trepidation - and for good reason! But is it possible that in our hurry not to be wrong again, we're underselling what could in fact be a kind-of-sort-of-if-you-squint-real-hard ray of sunshine on the Iraqi horizon? Or, I suppose, in this instance, it's not so much a ray of sunshine as it is a lack of a wall of burning apocalyptic fire coming right towards you...but you get my point. (I hope.)

In either case, whatever Tom Ricks, Time Magazine, or you think is going to happen in Iraq during the coming half-year is probably about as important as what Pat Robertson thinks of Haitian culture. We're all just going to have to sit back (or forward) in our seats, wait and watch.

But if it all turns out roses, just don't say Mr. Rosen and I didn't warn ya!

(h/t Daily Dish)