Pakistan's Recent Seizure of Taliban Second-in-Command Might Tell You a Whole Lot Less Than You Think

By Elias Isquith

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty has an interesting article about the vexing question of what the Pakistani internal security agency's recent capture of Taliban no. 2 Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar actually means. Was it a somewhat stunning and undeniably encouraging sign that the Obama Administration's revamped, diplomacy-focused approach to the Af-Pak region was paying dividends? Do we dare imagine that maybe - just maybe - a corner has been turned; that there's light at the end of the Afghanistan War's tunnel after all?

That's certainly the song some American observers were getting ready to sing immediately after the news was announced. Yet, judging by RFE/RL's reporting, it seems far from clear that this action by Pakistan truly represents the shift towards true cooperation with American and Karzai officials that many have been so anxiously awaiting. What may be the case, instead, is that rather than an example of Pakistan seizing the initiative and nabbing a key player in the Taliban insurgency - and thus, at the very least, depriving the Taliban of an important link in their communication chain between commanders both within and without Afghanistan - the Islamic nation's actions may have in fact been intended to ensure the opposite result.

How could this be the case? Well, the thinking goes like this: Baradar was on the verge of engaging in serious negotiations with the besieged, semi-legitimate Karzai government of Afghanistan with a possible detente - or even partnering - between the Taliban and the government as the goal. Pakistan, insistent that no negotiations between the warring parties can take place without its participation, nabbed Baradar to prevent such an ice-breaking. (Pakistan is ever-vigilant that, no matter what, Afghanistan does not become low-hanging fruit for Indian influence.)

Complicating things further still, it's unclear whether or not Baradar was even truly grabbed, nabbed, kidnapped, or even made to feel slightly uncomfortable; yes, another possibility is that the entire capture narrative is, as one source in the article calls it, a "face-saving" incident to perhaps diminish the bad taste that an imminent partnering between the now-opposed forces (Taliban and Karzai government) might leave in the mouths of those who have been engaged in this barely comprehensible and seemingly endless war.

Clearly, your guess is as good as mine. More than that, judging from this article, it appears that a shake of a Magic 8-Ball might be about as elucidating as spending an hour or so reading the various reports about this incident.

That's not to disparage the quality of reporting being done by many, but rather a recognition that, as is so often the case when it comes to the Middle East, no one can really say they know what's really going on - much less what it all means.

(Photo Courtesy of the U.S. Army)