The Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Sultan bin Abdelaziz Al Saud, 80, died on October 22nd 2011 in a New York hospital after a series of illnesses. He held the position as defense minister for almost five decades, and was a committed ally to the United States. Prince Sultan is succeeded by his brother, Prince Nayef, 78, who served as the interior minister for 35 years and who was chosen as the heir through a historic vote by the Allegiance Council, a body set up by King Abdullah to ensure transparent successor procedure. Nevertheless, many argue that the successor procedure was far from democratic even within the Council as Prince Nayef was appointed second deputy prime minister already in 2009, a role that would only have been given to King Abdullah’s successor to the Saudi throne.
The appointment of Prince Nayef poses several questions for Saudi Arabia’s future.Prince Nayef is believed to be more socially conservative than his predecessor- he oversaw a tough crackdown on the opposition in the wake of the Arab Spring and he opposes women to be given the right to vote and to drive. On the other hand, he has also shown progressive tendencies such as when he supported the move to issue women identity cards with their photographs, a legislation which consequently gave women more freedom in financial and legal transactions as they were previously reliant on being registered under their fathers’ or their husbands’ cards.
The immediate political risk and the stability of the country will depend on the person who will take over after Prince Sultan as Saudi Arabia’s next Defense Minister. The overall future stability of Saudi Arabia rests on the extent of conservatism in Prince Nayef’s rule and the possible implications it will have on U.S.-Saudi partnership.
While speculations of Prince Nayef’s conservatism are circulating among media sources, it is also wrong to claim that King Abdullah is a reform-minded monarch taking into account the current state of Saudi Arabia’s affairs: women are not allowed to drive and are not permitted to leave the house without a chaperone in the form of a household representatives: their father, brother or husband. The current King Abdullah, 87, is frail after having gone through three back surgeries in 2011 alone. Nonetheless, while King Abdullah is in charge, the status quo in Saudi Arabia is expected to maintain.
- Inga
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